After another .500 week, the ‘Lady’s’ record on the year stands at 15-17—not horrific, but not impressive—so it’s time to supersize the picks in week four; I’m rolling with 20!
That said, I’ll either be really happy on Monday or absolutely sick. Either way, I’m committed (or need to be committed).
As usual, all lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com.
1. Clemson at Florida State: Florida State (-13)
After absolutely owning the Demon Deacons last week, most people are pretty sure the Seminoles are about to roll through the ACC without too much resistance.
The Tigers may have laid a beating on Auburn in week one, but after the latter Tigers struggled mightily in an overtime win over Louisiana -Monroe, some are wondering if Clemson is really that good or if Auburn is simply that bad.
The Lady’s Pick: Clemson
2. South Alabama at Mississippi State: Mississippi State (-34)
Mississippi State is ready to take their No. 23 ranking out for a little spin and what better way to keep the chains moving than to play South Alabama—a team you’ve never played before.
While there can be little doubt that the Bulldogs will win this game, I’m always a little skeptical with big lines and teams who are new to one another. I think South Alabama will bring their best shot and get a few points on the board against a Bulldogs team that may suddenly be feeling a little too good about themselves.
The Lady’s Pick: South Alabama
3. Florida Atlantic at Alabama: Alabama (-49.5)
It’s not that I don’t think Alabama can put up more than 50 against FAU, but I don’t know that once the Tide get the lead they feel comfortable with that Saban won’t pull his guys to the sidelines and allow their back-ups to finish out the game.
50 is a lot to spot any team—even one that had the audacity to mouth off about how “beatable” you are after being roasted in Athens, GA the week prior.
Saban won’t be out to prove anything to the Owls at the expense of running up a score. That’s just not his style.
The Lady’s Pick: Florida Atlantic
4. Nevada at Hawaii: Nevada (-7)
It’s in Hawaii…where Nevada hasn’t been so lucky over the last few decades.
The Wolfpack are great in the run game—what else is new—but the Warriors are playing great run defense. I don’t know if this is the best game to spin the bottle on, but I do know that it will be interesting to see how motivated the Warriors will play against a team that gives up better than 500 yards a game—with a Norm Chow influenced offense.
The Lady’s Pick: Hawaii
5. Utah at Arizona State: Arizona State (-6)
Despite their win over BYU last week, don’t be fooled into thinking the Utes are ready to take on the world and show them something far better than they did last season. The fact of the matter is this: the Utes and Cougars HATE each other…HATE. They always play their best (or at least their most motivated game versus each other).
That said, Arizona State isn’t BYU and Tempe won’t be nearly as comfortable as Rice-Eccles—where, incidentally, ASU beat them by 28 last season.
The Lady’s Pick: Arizona State
6. Kansas State at Oklahoma: Oklahoma (-15.5)
Call me crazy, but I do feel that the Wildcats can keep up the pace with the Sooners—at least scoring wise. The problem is, I don’t know that the Wildcats are potent enough on defense to stop the Sooners from getting into the end zone on a regular basis.
That said, if K-State can find room to run against a tough Sooner front, then they stand a fighting chance of keeping it close—at least for a little while—because, if nothing else, the Wildcats have played the Sooners a lot closer in Norman over the years than they have in Manhattan.
The Lady’s Pick: Kansas State
7. Syracuse at Minnesota: Syracuse (-1)
This game might as well be a ‘pick em’ for what these two teams bring to the table.
I don’t know what to think of Syracuse yet and Minnesota is hardly impressing me with wins over Western Michigan and New Hampshire.
In the end, I think what will matter most is which Orange team shows up—the one who nearly gave the USC Trojans a run for their money or the one who barely beat Stony Brook (is that even a real school).
I’m going to simply stick with the theory that Syracuse was playing uninspired football against the latter after almost finding pay dirt against the former; in other words, I think Syracuse may finally be ready to put together a whole game and the Gophers might finally be ready for a little wakeup call.
The Lady’s Pick: Syracuse
8. Michigan at Notre Dame: Notre Dame (-6)
These two teams are as even as they come—on paper. Neither seems to be waltzing in with a decided edge one way or the other.
While Michigan has the dual-threat that is Denard Robinson, you have to know that the Fighting Irish are going to do everything in their power to shut his act down as quickly as possible. If nothing else, Alabama proved that however goes Denard Robinson, so goes the Michigan offense.
On the other hand, the Fighting Irish won’t find easy sledding against that hungry front seven of Michigan either—you can bet every last one of those guys will be hungry to prove they can play well against ranked opponents too.
The Lady’s Pick: Michigan
9. Missouri at South Carolina: South Carolina (-10.5)
The Tigers of Columbia will come to the Gamecocks of Columbia this weekend in Mizzou’s first SEC road contest of the year. What the CoMo Tigers will find out early is the confines of Williams-Brice Stadium isn’t friendly to visiting SEC opponents—particularly those with a skechy situation at quarterback.
If James Franklin found Georgia’s Jarvis Jones to be a bit overzealous, he’ll be tickled pink to meet Jadeveon Clowney and Devin Taylor.
Good luck with that.
The Lady’s Pick: South Carolina
10. Kentucky at Florida: Florida (-23.0)
The Wildcats are awful…just ask everybody.
After a poor showing against Western Kentucky, the pink slip for Joker Phillips is all but in the mailbox and Florida, despite starting sluggishly in their first two games, looks to finally be waking up after SEC wins on the road at Texas A&M and Tennessee.
That said, is Kentucky going to be motivated to FINALLY play at least one big game for their inferno seated coach?
The Lady’s Pick: Florida
11. Georgia Tech (-14) over Miami: Georgia Tech
12. LSU (-20.5) over Auburn: LSU
13. Washington St (-20.5 ) over Colorado: Colorado
14.California (+16.5) at Southern Cal: California
15. Virginia (+18) at TCU: Virginia
16. Oregon State (+7.5) at UCLA: Oregon State
17. Arizona (+26.5) at Oregon: Arizona
18. Rutgers (+9.5) at Arkansas: Arkansas
19. Maryland (+25.5) at West Virginia: Maryland
20. Temple (+7) at Penn State: Temple